This whole strain of “well COVID cases are surging but haha where are the deaths” denialism has me super depressed about my fellow citizens’ ability to reason.
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Replying to @matthew_d_green
You insert the "haha" yourself. For my part, the inability of intelligent people to pay attention to surprising or negative evidence reinforces my existing worldview!
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Replying to @Pinboard
Here where I live we need a mechanism for why multiple-times increase in COVID cases (even among known vulnerable groups) would produce close to zero corresponding deaths. And “deaths are a lagging indicator” makes sense, “COVID doesn’t kill anyone anymore” doesn’t.
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Replying to @matthew_d_green @Pinboard
I mean I’d be as excited as anyone if the COVID fatality rate had dropped to near-zero. But I don’t find this plausible. And you need to understand that to hold this position, this is what you’re asking us to believe.
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Replying to @matthew_d_green
The position I hold is "covid cases are surging, but where are the deaths?" The question mark is important, and there is no derisive laughter.
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Replying to @Pinboard
And the answer, which people ranging from experts to “amateurs who’ve read the news” keep giving you, is that deaths are a trailing indicator and indeed already appear to be appearing in locations that started the surge first. And you respond to that by ignoring the answer.pic.twitter.com/UnxyzIKACg
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Replying to @matthew_d_green @Pinboard
sehe Retweeted Miles Beckett
Also big part: https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880 … Simpsons Paradox
sehe added,
Miles Beckett @mbeckettThe trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion. A thread 1/9#COVID19#ThursdayThoughtsShow this thread1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
No, we're talking about per state data (Matt and I usually fight about Arizona).
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