We have very strong evidence by now that a major driver of covid spread is superspreading events indoors, at some distance from the spreader, but proximity at the arbitrary 2 meter distance is still being treated like a talisman against infection six months into this disaster.https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1279450138881265665 …
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I see a lot of scolding people for being more lax in their behavior, but how do you expect everyohe to stay vigilant when there is no public communication, the CDC is silent, the president is a liar, and there is no articulated plan or strategy for a pandemic that may last years?
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Given the leadership and information vacuum, Americans have been acting rationally by their lights. When case counts and deaths go up, they become more risk-averse. When no one around them is dying, they relax their vigilance. There is endless moralizing about this to no good end
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If you want people to act differently, like wear masks universally even when most people are healthy, you have to EXPLAIN this in a repetitive, clear, persuasive way, model the behavior, and do it outside the confines of the political carnival. Too few in the US have done that
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You also need to give people some sense of what to expect. "Stay indoors with your kids until further notice" is not an acceptable public policy. The reason reopening took hold too early is in part the fact that it sounded like a plan. What is the plan right now? Do we have one?
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I wish I could find a great compilation of super spreader events, but they weren’t all indoors. There were a few at theme parks. And AFAIK, the role of air conditioning is farrr from conclusive, but compelling. Maybe we don’t know enough to meaningfully change some advice.
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Similarly, I’ve seen pre-pubs both say airplanes are 99% safe and dangerous super-spreader breeding grounds. The "99% safe" crowd cites the industrial-grade air filters in the AC.
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The beach closings are infuriating. "Masks and outdoors and a little distance OK, indoors bad" would be an effective and coherent message, but instead policymakers seem to be randomly pushing buttons in the hope of avoiding bad press.
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Beaches are open, parking is closed, at least in SF
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