We still don't have a satisfactory answer for why poor megacities like Dhaka, Lagos, Jakarta, Manila, or New Delhi haven't had a runaway coronavirus outbreak like the ones that hit New York or Lombardy, while other parts of the world are on their second or third iteration.
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I think that those big outbreaks early were caused by rushes on the hospitals from by worried people(i.e hypochondriacs). That made the hospitals themselves huge vectors. Now, people are staying away from the hospitals AND the hospitals have gotten better at containing it.
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Yeah it’s seriously confusing. You could give some mention to warmer weather early on since many of the expected ones were in the Southern Hemisphere, but that’s out the window now too..
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I've seen folks theorizing that Air Conditioning is contributing to the spread. the spring weather in New England lines up with the declines there
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I agree on the a.c., but it's been air-conditioner hot in southern New England for quite a while now.
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You'd think excess mortality would be an easy analysis to do, and would confirm if there are huge differences between different cities across the world, but it seems that not that many countries publish the necessary aggregate mortality datasets. (cf. https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid …)
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Median age is 10-14 years younger in some of those places vs many parts of Europe and US - that could be one factor, though probably not the only one
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low frequency random events if you get 500 individuals arriving from infected areas and, say, 10 are highly contagious, you get an outbreak if you only get 10 arriving in the first place, low chance there's enough aggregate viral shedding there to create an outbreak
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so of the places that "should" have had an outbreak but didn't: the ones that fall into the first category apparently just wore masks and it worked (e.g. japan, jakarta) and the rest fall into the second category. How many visitors is Lagos getting from Wuhan?
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How about lack of elder care facilities?
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Would be interesting to compare time spent outdoors versus people living in rich megacities. Vitamin D deficiency and breathing recirculated air both appear to significantly increase risk.
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