People typically respond to this observation in two ways. The first is to point out rising cases in such cities, which is absolutely right. The mystery is the lack of catastrophic growth, six months in to the pandemic. The second response is to say the figures are simply wrong
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But there are a lot of places that by our understanding of this disease should have been decimated, that haven't been. This includes places with disastrous policy, misgovernment, poverty, high density, lack of public health infrastructure, you name it. I remain baffled.
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Age distribution?
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That didn't stop rapid spread in Brazil or Iran. None of the candidate explanations really fit the data that comfortably
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I still think that gatherings like parties and places like bars present higher than usual risks. May be the party/bar culture isn't the same?
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Religious gatherings?
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Aren't a bunch of planes bringing in returnee expats back in most states, some more than most?
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The Indian government is avoiding testing, and underreporting numbers. The *hot* summers and stringent lockdowns would have helped as well. Look at Mumbai for a counterexample. Let's see how bad things get once the monsoons hit.
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My guess? Combination of a) % of each day that people spend in completely enclosed indoor spaces? (This still seems underappreciated.) b) Age distribution c) Some mask wearing (not generalized, but probably still more than NYC in March)
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Yeah, this is the same kind of Rube Goldberg answer everyone (including myself) comes up with. You add moving parts until you sort of, kind of convince yourself it fits the data, but as an explanation it's not much to boast about.
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