This theory of spread leads to a somewhat testable prediction that the large outdoor protests taking place in the US should not cause a significant spike in coronavirus cases, and that the locus of spread will continue to be indoor spaces like nursing homes and meatpacking plants
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Replying to @Pinboard
Fantastic. So if all we need to worry about is 20% of the cases being superspreadera, and we have somewhere between 1.4M and, say, 10m active cases, then all we need to do is contact-trace and isolate 280K-1m people. Easy peasy lemon squeezy.
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Replying to @matthew_d_green
This is kind of disingenuous. If disease spread is driven by superspreading events that fit a pretty specific pattern, the Japanese example shows that you can run a first-world economy of 125 million at a fairly normal level while containing the arrival and spread of the disease.
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Replying to @Pinboard @matthew_d_green
If I were going there I wouldn't be starting from here.
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Replying to @kevinmarks @matthew_d_green
No doubt this is trenchant but I don't follow you.
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Replying to @Pinboard @matthew_d_green
It's the old Irish saying when asked for directions. The Japanese example works when the disease isn't widespread. The UK and US are a long way from that and are currently making it worse.
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Replying to @kevinmarks @matthew_d_green
The disease isn't widespread in most parts of the US, and conversely there was community spread happening in Osaka, Hokkaido, Kobe and Tokyo. But cluster-chasing and masks proved remarkably effective. Seems worth a try to me.
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Since we know the disease spreads primarily through superspreading events, and those seem to be occurring in fairly specific circumstances, understanding those events better and finding countermeasures strikes me as the royal road to containing the pandemic.
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Replying to @Pinboard @matthew_d_green
I agree with you. I think we can converge on this, but it is going to need public trust in contact tracing and cluster analysis, and the UK is undermining that by shoddy outsourcing, and the US just announced contact tracing is for catching antifa terrorists.
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Japan had a solid existing network of local public health workers able to ramp up contact tracing with trust.
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It also got past the point of cluster chasing to community spread, and was then brought under control with masks and fairly mild social distancing measures. Arguing that these measures won't work in the UK/US is like saying chemo can't work on a patient because they're too sick
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Replying to @Pinboard @kevinmarks
In order for them to work, people have to use them.
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