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Pinboard

@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 2 Jun 2020

      This theory of spread leads to a somewhat testable prediction that the large outdoor protests taking place in the US should not cause a significant spike in coronavirus cases, and that the locus of spread will continue to be indoor spaces like nursing homes and meatpacking plants

      4 replies 9 retweets 48 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard

      Fantastic. So if all we need to worry about is 20% of the cases being superspreadera, and we have somewhere between 1.4M and, say, 10m active cases, then all we need to do is contact-trace and isolate 280K-1m people. Easy peasy lemon squeezy.

      3 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @matthew_d_green

      This is kind of disingenuous. If disease spread is driven by superspreading events that fit a pretty specific pattern, the Japanese example shows that you can run a first-world economy of 125 million at a fairly normal level while containing the arrival and spread of the disease.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Kevin Marks‏ @kevinmarks 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @matthew_d_green

      If I were going there I wouldn't be starting from here.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @kevinmarks @matthew_d_green

      No doubt this is trenchant but I don't follow you.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Kevin Marks‏ @kevinmarks 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @matthew_d_green

      It's the old Irish saying when asked for directions. The Japanese example works when the disease isn't widespread. The UK and US are a long way from that and are currently making it worse.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @kevinmarks @matthew_d_green

      The disease isn't widespread in most parts of the US, and conversely there was community spread happening in Osaka, Hokkaido, Kobe and Tokyo. But cluster-chasing and masks proved remarkably effective. Seems worth a try to me.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @kevinmarks @matthew_d_green

      Since we know the disease spreads primarily through superspreading events, and those seem to be occurring in fairly specific circumstances, understanding those events better and finding countermeasures strikes me as the royal road to containing the pandemic.

      3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. Kevin Marks‏ @kevinmarks 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @matthew_d_green

      I agree with you. I think we can converge on this, but it is going to need public trust in contact tracing and cluster analysis, and the UK is undermining that by shoddy outsourcing, and the US just announced contact tracing is for catching antifa terrorists.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. Kevin Marks‏ @kevinmarks 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @kevinmarks @Pinboard @matthew_d_green

      Japan had a solid existing network of local public health workers able to ramp up contact tracing with trust.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 2 Jun 2020
      Replying to @kevinmarks @matthew_d_green

      It also got past the point of cluster chasing to community spread, and was then brought under control with masks and fairly mild social distancing measures. Arguing that these measures won't work in the UK/US is like saying chemo can't work on a patient because they're too sick

      8:24 AM - 2 Jun 2020
      • 1 Like
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      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 2 Jun 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @kevinmarks

          In order for them to work, people have to use them.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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