The fact that Brazil was also on this trajectory and then left it just makes the whole thing more baffling (except to the kind people in the replies, where I expect you will find every conceivable explanation put forward with complete authority)
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Important to stress that it's the shape of these growth curves that's the mystery, even if the numbers are being undercounted by an order of magnitude. The absolute numbers don't have to be true as long as the undercounting stays consistent enough to see the quite shocking trend
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A lot of Eastern European countries had better outcomes so far than Western because healthcare infrastructure was weaker, meaning they were more cautious and locked down earlier
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That's manifestly not true, but sure.
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The reason, in Mexico at leas, seems to be that numbers are not being reported correctly to the WHO. Testing has been done at much lower rates than other OECD countries, & deaths have been mislabeled as 'atypical pneumonia'. Serious estimates put the real numbers at 3x
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I understand, and this is the case in many places. But whatever the multiplier, it's the trend line that needs explaining, not the total count (unless you think deaths are being underreported at an accelerating rate)
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Those graphs start at the 5th death. What do they look like if started at the 100th death? At the 500th? At the 1000th?
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My gut says the recall of American citizens abroad (and they were many) shoved largely through NY airports, while NY had yet started to do serious measures to reduce the community spread that had happened, is a big differentiator. We didn’t test or truly isolate those folks.
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