.@Pinboard my current best guess on Japan’s success is they had an uncannily precise set of very early interventions and they executed on them very well. I think they also got lucky. Have you seen any Japanese serology studies? https://twitter.com/mims/status/1264503963518468098 …
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I’m not as quick as you to discount speed of first wave interventions. Makes a huge difference in most models. I think they did contact tracing very well. Indoor masks definitely help. Did they use cloth masks or surgical or something better?
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I think I expressed myself badly. I'm not discounting the early interventions, but the fact that it later got to the point of community spread, and then stopped there anyway, makes them less of a satisfying explanation, if that makes sense. Masks I see are mostly cloth.
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