Data continues to accumulate for the hypothesis that superspreading events drives the pandemic. As few as 1% (!) of infected people caused 80% of secondary infections in Israel. If this holds up, it will have interesting political consequences in America https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.20104521v1.full.pdf …
-
-
Some of the protest videos I've seen certainly look like they have the potential to be superspreader events, despite being outdoors. People without masks crowding together and yelling seems hazardous. Maybe if they break up after only 1 minute they’ll be okay.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Superspreading just means that you can be fine “for a while” and than “not fine” almost instantly. But don’t “worry”: many US states already have enough cases that even a 1% rate of superspreading means it will happen almost instantly when restrictions are eased.
-
AFAICT, the only difference between low dispersion & high is when you've a small baseline # of cases. Low dispersion makes early intervention v. effective & makes the timing of breakouts more unpredictable. But as you say, 1% of 1M US active cases is still 10k superspreaders RN.
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.