Data continues to accumulate for the hypothesis that superspreading events drives the pandemic. As few as 1% (!) of infected people caused 80% of secondary infections in Israel. If this holds up, it will have interesting political consequences in America https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.20104521v1.full.pdf …
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Replying to @Pinboard
I'm a little wary of this because of the "everyone has more friends than you" effect in these kinds of distributions. The big events are more likely to be somewhere in the transmission path, so are more visible. They're also easier to manually trace.
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Replying to @kevinmarks @Pinboard
There's a Gladwellian impulse to tell stories about the amazing influencers who connect everyone that ends up being self reinforcing.
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Replying to @kevinmarks
I understand salience bias, but then so do the people who do these studies
1:27 AM - 23 May 2020
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