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@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 23 May 2020

    Data continues to accumulate for the hypothesis that superspreading events drives the pandemic. As few as 1% (!) of infected people caused 80% of secondary infections in Israel. If this holds up, it will have interesting political consequences in America https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.20104521v1.full.pdf …

    1:12 AM - 23 May 2020
    • 55 Retweets
    • 155 Likes
    • Grand Champion Rocket League Player mak.eth Aaron Lav Chris Zioutas Phong Nguyen Steve Worcester Dayyan Mathias ASE
    10 replies 55 retweets 155 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 23 May 2020

        This kind of spread means that most social distancing measures are unnecessary (though we may not know which ones!). That further implies that large sections of the country might be able to get away with ignoring them, which would further polarize pandemic response politically

        2 replies 4 retweets 20 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 23 May 2020

        An article of faith in the educated elite so far has been that there will be a comeuppance for any states or cities that try to re-open too early, and that they'll be sorry. If this hasn't happened yet, by this logic, it's only because of a time lag between infection and outbreak

        3 replies 2 retweets 12 likes
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      4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 23 May 2020

        But if a very small number of people drive infections, you can end up with large areas that don't socially distance and do just fine, at least for a while. This gives a pessimal situation where the pandemic is real and deadly, but the deniers are at least partially vindicated

        3 replies 11 retweets 21 likes
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      5. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 23 May 2020

        The virus's politics are weird. It's clearly very pro-environment, anti-meat, and has shown a commendable affinity for rich countries over the poor, but it also seems to want to sow maximal discord at a time when we can't handle much more of that

        5 replies 12 retweets 57 likes
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      6. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 23 May 2020

        An important thing to note about the superspreading hypothesis is that it refers to *events*. It's unclear whether that means individual people, special circumstances or locations, behaviors, or a combination of them all. Still, don't go on the retired meatpackers' karaoke cruise

        3 replies 6 retweets 54 likes
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      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Michael Krakovskiy‏ @deadprogrammer 23 May 2020
        Replying to @Pinboard

        I think the other two percent will be very upsetpic.twitter.com/MMVOUB5d8u

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Show replies
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      2. Kevin Marks‏ @kevinmarks 23 May 2020
        Replying to @Pinboard

        I'm a little wary of this because of the "everyone has more friends than you" effect in these kinds of distributions. The big events are more likely to be somewhere in the transmission path, so are more visible. They're also easier to manually trace.

        2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
      3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 23 May 2020
        Replying to @kevinmarks

        There's more to it, though. We have lots of examples of extravagant numbers of people getting sick from a single event (choir practice, cruise ship, workplace), yet in the broad population the disease isn't as highly contagious. This is one way to square these two facts

        0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      4. End of conversation
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      2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 23 May 2020
        Replying to @Skip_tick

        You're thinking of this as the root of a tree of infections. But this means something different, that very few infected people will go on to infect anyone else, but a small number will directly infect many.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. End of conversation

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