For people interested in non-barking dogs, the case of Belarus continues to present a puzzle. The official numbers of course are suspect, but the lack of major casualties in the one European country whose coronavirus response was total denial is a data point that is hard to fake.
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Replying to @Pinboard
I'm Portuguese. We're not that much bigger in population than Belarus, we've had a lockdown, and seemingly are a modest "success", but they have more known cases with 1/6 the deaths. Not sure what can explain the discrepancy, other than luck with some unknown factor.
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Death underreporting, of course. Speaking as a neighboring Ukrainian.
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I'm still going for pure dumb luck as a causative factor. Low dispersion factor dispute high R means that in some places the sparks just won't catch fire for a long while. I think our tendency to create narratives out of random events is leading us astray.
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That's a fancy way of saying low dispersion factor is the causative factor. Which I agree with!
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