I've been publicly wondering for a while why the spread of the pandemic is so uneven. This paper has me pretty persuaded that the Japanese public health people were right, and spread is entirely dominated by a few superspreading events. https://covid.idmod.org/data/Stochasticity_heterogeneity_transmission_dynamics_SARS-CoV-2.pdf …
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I'm saying this not to convince anyone, but because people were accusing me of being coy when I said I had no working theory. I didn't, and now I do. I'm looking forward to what the scientisticians come up with in support or against it.
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The key implication of the theory is that most sick people don't pass the disease on to others, but those who do are incredibly infectious. One consequence of this would be that the entire "anonymous contact tracing app" effort is completely futile, one reason I like the theory
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Replying to @Pinboard
If it's just the people, that doesn't quite account for the pattern of numerous family clusters which was noted in China (and one reason they sequestered infected people away from families); likewise lots of recent cases from people who'd "just stayed home" in NYC.
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There are ways to reconcile this, tho. Could be that spreading *events* involve infected people sharing uncirculated or recirculated air over time, infecting everyone else there -- whether their family or a whole damn office.
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Yeah, lots to investigate here!
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