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Pinboard

@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 21 May 2020

      I've been publicly wondering for a while why the spread of the pandemic is so uneven. This paper has me pretty persuaded that the Japanese public health people were right, and spread is entirely dominated by a few superspreading events. https://covid.idmod.org/data/Stochasticity_heterogeneity_transmission_dynamics_SARS-CoV-2.pdf …

      5 replies 78 retweets 184 likes
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    2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 21 May 2020

      I'm saying this not to convince anyone, but because people were accusing me of being coy when I said I had no working theory. I didn't, and now I do. I'm looking forward to what the scientisticians come up with in support or against it.

      2 replies 1 retweet 20 likes
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    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 21 May 2020

      The key implication of the theory is that most sick people don't pass the disease on to others, but those who do are incredibly infectious. One consequence of this would be that the entire "anonymous contact tracing app" effort is completely futile, one reason I like the theory

      9 replies 12 retweets 37 likes
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    4. David Terrell‏ @dbt 21 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard

      I've only read the linked paper once, so there's probably nuances I didn't get, but it seemed like SSEs are more linked to setting than to people.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 21 May 2020
      Replying to @dbt

      Yes, this seems unclear. In the Japanese model, they are people; in the paper, the focus is more on setting. Clearly a top priority for research

      4:32 PM - 21 May 2020
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      • David Terrell Garrett Wollman
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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