I've been publicly wondering for a while why the spread of the pandemic is so uneven. This paper has me pretty persuaded that the Japanese public health people were right, and spread is entirely dominated by a few superspreading events. https://covid.idmod.org/data/Stochasticity_heterogeneity_transmission_dynamics_SARS-CoV-2.pdf …
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I'm saying this not to convince anyone, but because people were accusing me of being coy when I said I had no working theory. I didn't, and now I do. I'm looking forward to what the scientisticians come up with in support or against it.
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The key implication of the theory is that most sick people don't pass the disease on to others, but those who do are incredibly infectious. One consequence of this would be that the entire "anonymous contact tracing app" effort is completely futile, one reason I like the theory
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Replying to @Pinboard
I've only read the linked paper once, so there's probably nuances I didn't get, but it seemed like SSEs are more linked to setting than to people.
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Yes, this seems unclear. In the Japanese model, they are people; in the paper, the focus is more on setting. Clearly a top priority for research
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