I've been publicly wondering for a while why the spread of the pandemic is so uneven. This paper has me pretty persuaded that the Japanese public health people were right, and spread is entirely dominated by a few superspreading events. https://covid.idmod.org/data/Stochasticity_heterogeneity_transmission_dynamics_SARS-CoV-2.pdf …
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Still don't advise anyone go on a retired meatpackers' cruise. Plenty more room for unknown unknowns
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What does a world look like if is optimized to avoid this kind of spreading mechanism? Japan. That's not so bad. You can get a haircut and go drinking. No choir practice, but they won't put a padlock on the swing set, either, and old people can come out of hiding.
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Oh, but the implications for sports are the worst, especially if conjectures about shouting/loud talking as a factor in spread turn out to have substance. Hope everyone likes golf!
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witch hunt!
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It also potentially means that we can make social distancing a lot more tolerable- allow small groups of friends to occasionally meet- without significantly compromising the value of it
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Yes, it would be extremely good news if proven true.
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Coughing and sneezing, just sayin'.
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The understanding superspreaders is not something we’ve been able to do really.
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See here for more along the same lines - there's a good chance superspreading is a fairly large piece of the puzzle. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all …
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