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@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 21 May 2020

      I've been publicly wondering for a while why the spread of the pandemic is so uneven. This paper has me pretty persuaded that the Japanese public health people were right, and spread is entirely dominated by a few superspreading events. https://covid.idmod.org/data/Stochasticity_heterogeneity_transmission_dynamics_SARS-CoV-2.pdf …

      5 replies 79 retweets 184 likes
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    2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 21 May 2020

      I'm saying this not to convince anyone, but because people were accusing me of being coy when I said I had no working theory. I didn't, and now I do. I'm looking forward to what the scientisticians come up with in support or against it.

      2 replies 1 retweet 20 likes
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    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 21 May 2020

      The key implication of the theory is that most sick people don't pass the disease on to others, but those who do are incredibly infectious. One consequence of this would be that the entire "anonymous contact tracing app" effort is completely futile, one reason I like the theory

      9 replies 12 retweets 37 likes
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      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 21 May 2020

      The bigger consequence is that if we can understand the nature of the superspreading events, it's possible the pandemic could be stopped very quickly. Optimism is off-brand for me, but this is the first explanation I've seen that fits the observations well and it forces my hand

      4:29 PM - 21 May 2020
      • 7 Retweets
      • 52 Likes
      • petra’s dépanneur pixel James Wilcox michael woods 🧹🔥 Novice writer sharing writing tips ✍️ 🎯 👍 jsled 🧦 John O’Shea Collin Lysford Hillel
      6 replies 7 retweets 52 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 21 May 2020

          Pinboard Retweeted Marc Lipsitch

          Prescient tweet:https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1228376643720249345 …

          Pinboard added,

          Marc LipsitchVerified account @mlipsitch
          2) There could be a higher degree of superspreading than has been appreciated ("dispersion in R0") which could mean that many locations outside Wuhan could "get lucky" and escape major onward transmission. https://hopkinsidd.github.io/nCoV-Sandbox/DispersionExploration.html … .
          Show this thread
          2 replies 4 retweets 17 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 21 May 2020

          Still don't advise anyone go on a retired meatpackers' cruise. Plenty more room for unknown unknowns

          1 reply 0 retweets 41 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 21 May 2020

          What does a world look like if is optimized to avoid this kind of spreading mechanism? Japan. That's not so bad. You can get a haircut and go drinking. No choir practice, but they won't put a padlock on the swing set, either, and old people can come out of hiding.

          3 replies 6 retweets 31 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 21 May 2020

          Oh, but the implications for sports are the worst, especially if conjectures about shouting/loud talking as a factor in spread turn out to have substance. Hope everyone likes golf!

          5 replies 4 retweets 22 likes
          Show this thread
        6. End of conversation
        1. mspaint skull‏ @WordOfZac 21 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          witch hunt!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Hillel‏ @hillelogram 21 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          It also potentially means that we can make social distancing a lot more tolerable- allow small groups of friends to occasionally meet- without significantly compromising the value of it

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 21 May 2020
          Replying to @hillelogram

          Yes, it would be extremely good news if proven true.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. not-a-real-doctor strange  ✍ 🖐‏ @dankloke 21 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          Coughing and sneezing, just sayin'.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Aaron "Get a Vaccine" Huslage‏ @huslage 21 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          The understanding superspreaders is not something we’ve been able to do really.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. NFT sale w/ free planet burning gift‏ @groby 21 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          See here for more along the same lines - there's a good chance superspreading is a fairly large piece of the puzzle.https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all …

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