I've been publicly wondering for a while why the spread of the pandemic is so uneven. This paper has me pretty persuaded that the Japanese public health people were right, and spread is entirely dominated by a few superspreading events. https://covid.idmod.org/data/Stochasticity_heterogeneity_transmission_dynamics_SARS-CoV-2.pdf …
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The bigger consequence is that if we can understand the nature of the superspreading events, it's possible the pandemic could be stopped very quickly. Optimism is off-brand for me, but this is the first explanation I've seen that fits the observations well and it forces my hand
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Still don't advise anyone go on a retired meatpackers' cruise. Plenty more room for unknown unknowns
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What does a world look like if is optimized to avoid this kind of spreading mechanism? Japan. That's not so bad. You can get a haircut and go drinking. No choir practice, but they won't put a padlock on the swing set, either, and old people can come out of hiding.
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Oh, but the implications for sports are the worst, especially if conjectures about shouting/loud talking as a factor in spread turn out to have substance. Hope everyone likes golf!
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Under your new theory, seems like the anonymous exposure app would be extremely useful if you identify the spreader. Then you can let the folks that were in the vicinity of the spreader know. Correct?
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You would need to do stats on the encrypted dataset, so no.
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If one infected super spreader stands next another non-infected super spreader on the 7 Train, lights out. In QNS.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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I've only read the linked paper once, so there's probably nuances I didn't get, but it seemed like SSEs are more linked to setting than to people.
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Yes, this seems unclear. In the Japanese model, they are people; in the paper, the focus is more on setting. Clearly a top priority for research
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