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@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 20 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard

      If you think there’s some hidden factor other than lockdowns that will (and here I’m being selfish) have some relevance to protecting our society, go hook up with some epidemiologists or head to Africa. I don’t see how journalists are going to crack this one.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 20 May 2020
      Replying to @matthew_d_green @Pinboard

      I do agree that COVID is weird. I hope that yams or chrysanthemum pollen or TB vaccine or exposure to childhood chicken pox is the cure, but I don’t think journalists are going to crack the case.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 20 May 2020
      Replying to @matthew_d_green @Pinboard

      When I look closer to home, at US states, the only variables I see are slightly slower spread in more rural states — and lockdowns, which create obvious discontinuities in the data. So whatever the magic vaccine is, I don’t think we have it here.pic.twitter.com/7cpkMuocWI

      4 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 20 May 2020
      Replying to @matthew_d_green

      This is the chart that shows the NYC area as an outlier from everywhere else in the country

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 20 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard

      Yes, but it’s not that much of an outlier. When you plot it from the date of 20 cases you see that Florida was on a rapid increase too, just at a slightly slower doubling time. But their lockdown hits much earlier in the spread — and is hugely effective.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 20 May 2020
      Replying to @matthew_d_green @Pinboard

      The problem here is that we don’t have the counterfactual. A large, well-populated US state that started the exponential spread but didn’t do a lockdown at some point. I assume over the next few months we’ll get to find out what that looks like.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 20 May 2020
      Replying to @matthew_d_green

      It's really hard to get this counterfactual because people look at the news and will change their behavior no matter what the official policy. But we had something close to it in Europe, with Belarus, and they're doing pretty well, much better than the UK, France, Italy etc.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 20 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard

      I can’t get a logarithmic graph but it looks like they had a steady non-exponential rise that flattened on about April 28. I wonder why.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 20 May 2020
      Replying to @matthew_d_green

      pic.twitter.com/1EhLhWuscR

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 20 May 2020
      Replying to @matthew_d_green @Pinboard

      Only news I can find that happened around that time is Belarus’s dictator claiming that COVID isn’t happening and having a bunch of military parades. I’m starting to think I’ve been trolled.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 20 May 2020
      Replying to @matthew_d_green

      The Belarussian dictator is a kook and denialist and has failed to take any serious measures, while promoting behavior that seems frankly homicidal (holding large parades, etc). That's the counterfactual you said was missing in the US data—a state that just did the worst things.

      6:02 AM - 20 May 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 2 Likes
      • mastaprincess Adam Kunicki 🇺🇸🇵🇱 You and 52 others
      2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
        1. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 20 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          Sorry. What I was saying is that “Japan and every African nation is faking their numbers” is a ridiculous conspiracy theory. But “the Belarusian dictatorship is lying about their numbers” is something that I cannot rule out at all.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Cat  🦄 Black‏ @pinkthingie 20 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @matthew_d_green

          OK, but also the travel between Belarus and previous centers of the epidemic is likely very limited. What would happen if a relatively large amount of people from Belarus went skiing to Italy this winter.

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