Hoping that future journalism schools will offer topics like "paying more attention when a global pandemic mostly skips the two most populous continents"
This is the chart that shows the NYC area as an outlier from everywhere else in the country
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Yes, but it’s not that much of an outlier. When you plot it from the date of 20 cases you see that Florida was on a rapid increase too, just at a slightly slower doubling time. But their lockdown hits much earlier in the spread — and is hugely effective.
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The problem here is that we don’t have the counterfactual. A large, well-populated US state that started the exponential spread but didn’t do a lockdown at some point. I assume over the next few months we’ll get to find out what that looks like.
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In Switzerland, we have the same "outliers" despite a population of only 8.5 million, the size of Vermont and New Hampshire combined, and no reasonable difference in policy, climate nor population. You know why there are outliers? Exponential growth. Seehttps://www.corona-data.ch/
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