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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17 May 2020

      Nate Silver Retweeted Brian Stelter

      So, here's a podcast with @brianstelter where I talk about media coverage of coronavirus data. I think media coverage of coronavirus overall has been good in many respects, but there are basically three things that frustrate me from a data point of view.https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1261855220168081409 …

      Nate Silver added,

      Brian StelterVerified account @brianstelter
      My guest on this week's Reliable podcast: @NateSilver538. On Covid-19 data, "known unknowns," and the need for humility >>> https://www.cnn.com/audio/podcasts/reliable-sources …
      47 replies 152 retweets 598 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17 May 2020

      1. I think there's not nearly enough recognition in the media that the data we have on coronavirus is highly imperfect and this sometimes leads to misleading conclusions.

      10 replies 53 retweets 472 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17 May 2020

      e.g. experts estimate that only ~10% of coronavirus *infections* have become detected *cases* in the US. So accounting for how well we're doing at detection (e.g. test volume) is very important. Deaths are also significantly underreported, more so in some contexts than others.

      13 replies 40 retweets 291 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17 May 2020

      There are a lot of other quirks in reporting. The data is proceeded by humans; it doesn't appear automatically. Lags are unavoidable, but some data series are more lagging than others. Many places have "lumpy" data, i.e. they report data in batches rather than in a steady flow.

      8 replies 20 retweets 203 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17 May 2020

      2. The next major category is not accounting enough for uncertainty. I actually think the experts have done a very good job of accounting for the major traits of COVID-19, especially if you (literally) read the fine print on what they were saying rather through the media filter.

      4 replies 16 retweets 201 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17 May 2020

      But it's a new disease! there's a lot we don't know! The experts are learning as they go! While there are some places where we should have relatively strong priors, in general experts need space to revise their conclusions and the media should be attentive to those revisions...

      3 replies 28 retweets 255 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17 May 2020

      Which means often reporting conclusions as provisional or "the best evidence available right now". It also means avoiding overly confident predictions and proclamations and avoiding the impulse to weave everything into a neatly-packaged narrative.

      8 replies 22 retweets 248 likes
      Show this thread
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 17 May 2020
      Replying to @NateSilver538

      How does lightning not strike you when you tweet this

      11:48 AM - 17 May 2020
      • 10 Likes
      • funge around and find out Contains Less Than 2% Hermann autogolpe recently upgraded to coup barry Stokker wanye
      0 replies 0 retweets 10 likes

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