(Yes I know it might look different metro-to-metro but I don't know if there are death counts for San Francisco city or metro...)
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I think that you can imagine a model where mask usage turns it into a disease that spreads more slowly that you stay ahead of. So you will have flare ups but it doesn't explode.
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My problem right now is I can imagine every conceivable type of model
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There is still the notion that Japan is simply not doing the tests (in fact, drastically less than other countries). IDK whether that can mask this epidemic so I am waiting for their official death stats (delayed by almost 3 months so next week March data will come in)
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A lot of people were sure that the hospitals would be overrun several weeks ago, based on the trajectory then, and it just ... didn't happen.
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