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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 13 May 2020
      Replying to @HirokoTabuchi

      The timing is the mystery. Cases started rising after March 24. Before then there was already anxious talk of undertesting, and a Health Ministry prediction that cases would spike in mid-April. State of emergency didn't happen until April 16, but by then cases were declining

      2 replies 2 retweets 10 likes
    4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 13 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @HirokoTabuchi

      If it was the state of emergency that helped reduce spread, you'd expect to see that delayed by a week or more. And as you saw in press reports, the changes in behavior were not dramatic; very many people were not able to work from home; night life in Tokyo went on.

      2 replies 2 retweets 8 likes
    5. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 13 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @HirokoTabuchi

      School even restarted during this period! The reason people were spooked in the health care system is that there was real community spread in Kobe, Osaka and Tokyo. The fact that this abated with only mild intervention, even as people continued to socialize, is the mystery.

      1 reply 2 retweets 10 likes
    6. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 14 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @HirokoTabuchi

      The basic tension is between places like New York (where cases shot up quickly and fall slowly, even in the strictest period of lockdown) or Ghana (one guy goes to work and infects 500 coworkers at a fish cannery) and the ease with which Japan has avoided a blowup for many months

      1 reply 3 retweets 10 likes
    7. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 14 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @HirokoTabuchi

      The very popular theory (even among epidemiologists!) that perhaps old people were just dying quietly at home in elevated numbers is not borne out by the flat excess death numbers for Tokyo in March. Maybe April will show something? But the mystery of why Japan was spared is real

      1 reply 3 retweets 20 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 14 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @HirokoTabuchi

      Here's the annotated graph of official cases per day. You can see why the March 24 inflection point looked suspicious, and how the situation looked dire the first week of April. But then it calmed down, even before the state of emergency was declared, and has dropped ever sincepic.twitter.com/6VL1gGcYPo

      12:15 AM - 14 May 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 8 Likes
      • Hiroko Tabuchi Dan Castellano The Last Peanut vaccinated worm🐛 Allways Steve Toutonghi chickeee Eran Galperin
      2 replies 2 retweets 8 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. kowalski‏ @wu_lmao 14 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @HirokoTabuchi

          does Japan do actual quarantines? like forcing travelers entering the country into isolation for ~2 weeks?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. kowalski‏ @wu_lmao 14 May 2020
          Replying to @wu_lmao @Pinboard @HirokoTabuchi

          I ask bc US state numbers are similarly confounding, and my only real theory is # of initial seed cases. NY(,NJ,MA) had unrestricted travel from Italy, China, and from other states before any testing was available. and undetected seed cases is obviously much, much faster growth

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Alan Engel‏ @alanatpaterra 14 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @HirokoTabuchi

          Shimura Ken died on March 29.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Alan Engel‏ @alanatpaterra 14 May 2020
          Replying to @alanatpaterra @Pinboard @HirokoTabuchi

          Shimura's death was likely more effective than any gov't announcement in persuading people that Covid19 is serious. https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200402/p2a/00m/0na/026000c … @robotopia @yurikageyama

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation

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