The timing is the mystery. Cases started rising after March 24. Before then there was already anxious talk of undertesting, and a Health Ministry prediction that cases would spike in mid-April. State of emergency didn't happen until April 16, but by then cases were declining
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Here's the annotated graph of official cases per day. You can see why the March 24 inflection point looked suspicious, and how the situation looked dire the first week of April. But then it calmed down, even before the state of emergency was declared, and has dropped ever sincepic.twitter.com/6VL1gGcYPo
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does Japan do actual quarantines? like forcing travelers entering the country into isolation for ~2 weeks?
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