The timing is the mystery. Cases started rising after March 24. Before then there was already anxious talk of undertesting, and a Health Ministry prediction that cases would spike in mid-April. State of emergency didn't happen until April 16, but by then cases were declining
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The very popular theory (even among epidemiologists!) that perhaps old people were just dying quietly at home in elevated numbers is not borne out by the flat excess death numbers for Tokyo in March. Maybe April will show something? But the mystery of why Japan was spared is real
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Here's the annotated graph of official cases per day. You can see why the March 24 inflection point looked suspicious, and how the situation looked dire the first week of April. But then it calmed down, even before the state of emergency was declared, and has dropped ever sincepic.twitter.com/6VL1gGcYPo
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