The timing is the mystery. Cases started rising after March 24. Before then there was already anxious talk of undertesting, and a Health Ministry prediction that cases would spike in mid-April. State of emergency didn't happen until April 16, but by then cases were declining
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The basic tension is between places like New York (where cases shot up quickly and fall slowly, even in the strictest period of lockdown) or Ghana (one guy goes to work and infects 500 coworkers at a fish cannery) and the ease with which Japan has avoided a blowup for many months
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The very popular theory (even among epidemiologists!) that perhaps old people were just dying quietly at home in elevated numbers is not borne out by the flat excess death numbers for Tokyo in March. Maybe April will show something? But the mystery of why Japan was spared is real
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