The timing is the mystery. Cases started rising after March 24. Before then there was already anxious talk of undertesting, and a Health Ministry prediction that cases would spike in mid-April. State of emergency didn't happen until April 16, but by then cases were declining
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School even restarted during this period! The reason people were spooked in the health care system is that there was real community spread in Kobe, Osaka and Tokyo. The fact that this abated with only mild intervention, even as people continued to socialize, is the mystery.
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The basic tension is between places like New York (where cases shot up quickly and fall slowly, even in the strictest period of lockdown) or Ghana (one guy goes to work and infects 500 coworkers at a fish cannery) and the ease with which Japan has avoided a blowup for many months
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I live in Shibuya, I tell you nightlife in Tokyo DIDN'T go on. Some more off-center places maybe but in Shinjuku, Harajuku/Omotesando, all my walking routes I saw weekends, weeknights, it was VERY empty. SOE was in place April 7th, too. A week before the peak of infection
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Nick of time, in retrospect.
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