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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Henrik Salje

      Today both France and Spain (two badly hit countries) have come out with seroprevalence numbers. (France is a model, paper linked below. Spain was representative sample/survey of 60K; I don't have the paper yet). Both are ~5 percent. If that holds up, that is very very bad news.https://twitter.com/hsalje/status/1260606369805320195 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Henrik Salje @hsalje
      Despite 20,000+ COVID19 deaths, we find only ~5% of France infected. The lockdown, eased on Monday, reduced transmission by 80%, however R still close to 1 (~0.7) with 3-6k daily infections, leaving little room for post-lockdown increases @ScienceMagazine https://bit.ly/2zzLKJX  pic.twitter.com/IaeVeHYiDn
      103 replies 1,461 retweets 2,384 likes
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    2. Paul Lomax‏Verified account @PaulLomax 13 May 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Seems to suggest Spain’s IFR is 1.3% but France’s is 0.6%. Based on excess death data. Wonder if there was a big policy difference, eg care homes?

      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 13 May 2020
      Replying to @PaulLomax @zeynep

      At these low prevalence numbers you can't ignore the effects of false positive rates in the test itself. I would triple-check the details before comparing two small numbers from these studies directly

      2:58 PM - 13 May 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • David Peter Wang Leopold Aschenbrenner Paul Lomax
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        2. Paul Lomax‏Verified account @PaulLomax 13 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @zeynep

          I was arguing similar a few weeks ago re a similar study, and an epidemiologist explained to me why it wasn’t an issue - but I can’t find it now 😫 (Obvs would depend on the details as to whether it was relevant though)

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Colleen Blick‏ @collblick 13 May 2020
          Replying to @PaulLomax @Pinboard @zeynep

          Would be interesting to read. My understanding is some false + can be considered unimportant for determining how susceptible a pop is (90vs95naive is trivial), but ifr calc will be junk since dividing deaths by 3% infected vs 8% infected leaves a huge range.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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