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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Henrik Salje

      Today both France and Spain (two badly hit countries) have come out with seroprevalence numbers. (France is a model, paper linked below. Spain was representative sample/survey of 60K; I don't have the paper yet). Both are ~5 percent. If that holds up, that is very very bad news.https://twitter.com/hsalje/status/1260606369805320195 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Henrik Salje @hsalje
      Despite 20,000+ COVID19 deaths, we find only ~5% of France infected. The lockdown, eased on Monday, reduced transmission by 80%, however R still close to 1 (~0.7) with 3-6k daily infections, leaving little room for post-lockdown increases @ScienceMagazine https://bit.ly/2zzLKJX  pic.twitter.com/IaeVeHYiDn
      104 replies 1,475 retweets 2,399 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      One hopeful scenario had been there is a lot of asymptomatic transmission we are not noticing. Maybe. But if some of the worst hit countries are still composed of almost completely immunologically naive populations, that's a different challenge. Quite confusing, to be honest.

      14 replies 78 retweets 380 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Olivier Bouchard

      Clarification re: my Sweden seroprevalence question. Lancet article said 25 percent for Stockholm. The question re:Spain and France only at 5 percent remains, though. If that's the real seroprevalence, big death toll despite (relatively) limited spread.https://twitter.com/oli_bou/status/1260644675083358208 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Olivier Bouchard @oli_bou
      Replying to @zeynep
      Unless I'm mistaken, Sweden claimed 20-25% in Stockholm, not in the country at large.
      10 replies 40 retweets 178 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Datadista

      Even the worst hit Spanish regions appear to be at ~10-14% seroprevalence. Hopefully we'll have more distribution/network data—but one guess would be the spread in nursing homes/vulnerable populations couldn't be checked even as everyone else locked down.https://twitter.com/datadista/status/1260620767240302593 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Datadista @datadista
      ÚLTIMA HORA | Mapa con la prevalencia de anticuerpos por COVID-19 en España. Datos de la primera ronda del estudio de seroprevalencia. Según Sanidad, un 5% de la población española ha tenido contacto con el virus. De momento no hay inmunidad de rebaño. 👇 pic.twitter.com/kHoFscImiC
      Show this thread
      11 replies 48 retweets 168 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Adam Kucharski

      Here's a super helpful expert thread on squaring Sweden's claims with the seroprevalence numbers emerging elsewhere.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254084767496261632 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharski
      This modelling study from Sweden suggests 26% of Stockholm county will have been infected by May 1st (https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/2da059f90b90458d8454a04955d1697f/skattning-peakdag-antal-infekterade-covid-19-utbrottet-stockholms-lan-februari-april-2020.pdf …). However, our estimates of under-reporting suggest only 5-10% have been infected so far (https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html …). So what's going on? 1/
      Show this thread
      8 replies 46 retweets 178 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Aaron E. Carroll

      New Indiana data. Random sample. Prevalence: 2.8% These findings contradict the hope that many had mild/asymptomatic infections and are now immune. This suggests places that were spared (so far) did not have big outbreaks.https://twitter.com/aaronecarroll/status/1260668185998700547 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Aaron E. CarrollVerified account @aaronecarroll
      Now to results! How many are currently infected? 1.7% How many more have antibodies? 1.1% Total prevalence in Indiana? 2.8% Anyone hoping that great numbers of Americans have been infected, but with no symptoms or very mild illness is going to be disappointed.
      Show this thread
      9 replies 92 retweets 213 likes
      Show this thread
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Ignacio Clavero

      Yes waiting for the paper and the details. This appears to be the first wave.https://twitter.com/ignacioclavero/status/1260686236123115520 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Ignacio Clavero @ignacioclavero
      Replying to @zeynep @CyborgEvilham
      Bear in mind that's just the first wave of the Spanish survey. More data to be published in the following weeks.
      8 replies 11 retweets 79 likes
      Show this thread
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 13 May 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Research imitates life!

      2:44 PM - 13 May 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Courtney Campbell, MBA, PHR, SHRM-CP Collin Lysford
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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