What the actual fuck is going on?https://twitter.com/jt_mag_os/status/1260184689991577606 …
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No idea how accurate, but saw on here that if an entire population wears masks you cut down chance of transmission to 1.5% ... looks like their could be some truth to that
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here we go ... 1.5% comes from Taiwanese government https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/05/04/2003735785 …
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obvious followup question would be, has there been random sample serology testing done, to determine if there really were a lot more infected? So I googled, there has, and there were: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079822v1.full.pdf … 33 +ve/1000 in Kobe, ~500x > than confirmed
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Lots of these little serology studies find 3% in places with near-zero known cases. Places with more infections don't have these huge asymptomatic ratios. Explanations: a) covid19 doesn't make you sick until your friends also have it b) the tests have like 3% false positives
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as far as I can tell the only plausible explanations are: - a different, mild coronavirus passed through Japan and a couple other places recently and is close enough that immunity to it gives partial protection (in which case we need to find it for a vaccine) - something genetic
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Between garbage data, varying approaches to lockdown (incl. variations in type and level of compliance), underlying health stuff, likely geographic variations in transmissibility and severity of illness, etc., I can confidently say we don’t know what works and what doesn’t.
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Interesting. And Japan has a relatively high percentage of people older than 60y
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