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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 11 May 2020

      I think @patio11 and his collaborators should publish an update to or retraction of these alarmist claims about the coronavirus epidemic in Japan (which I shared), as they have not been borne out by the facts but remain influential https://www.kalzumeus.com/2020/04/21/japan-coronavirus/ …pic.twitter.com/I5ZqeQs3ic

      8 replies 7 retweets 17 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 11 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard

      Can you identify what specifically you believe was wrong there? Was it the claim that Japan actually had an uncontrolled epidemic? Or that that epidemic would be an acknowledged national scale emergency in April? Or that medical care would be changed as we ran out of beds?

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 11 May 2020
      Replying to @patio11

      The claim that "rapid uncontrolled increase in infections, which will cause a breakdown in care (which Japan refers to as an “overshoot”) when the hospital system is overwhelmed, leading to a sharp increase in deaths," and "over 5K severe cases" leading to "breakdown in care".

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 11 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @patio11

      You forecast all of this for April ("We will, within the month of April, confront a crisis worse than any since the war") and it didn't happen.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 11 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard

      The government, after having said the exact words “Japan now faces a national hardship (国難) such that that it has not experienced since the war”, substantially supplemented the failed policy which threatened that outcome (in the full quote) with a nationwide state of emergency.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 11 May 2020
      Replying to @patio11

      It boggles my mind that you can make such a specific, wrong prediction (the breakdown of the health care system, mass illness by the end of April) and then pretend you got it right. I'll leave it to others to read your claim and evaluate it.

      3 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
    7. BjarniBjarniBjarni‏ @HerraBRE 11 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @patio11

      I think you are being somewhat uncharitable. Any and all predictions of this nature should be read with an implicit "if policies remain unchanged." The stated purpose of the paper was to help encourage such changes. The goal was never to be right, it was to become wrong.

      3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 11 May 2020
      Replying to @HerraBRE @patio11

      The policies remained unchanged. Schools reopened, and the state of emergency was only declared once the peak of new cases had already passed. It would be hard to get this more wrong than @patio11 (and I!) both did

      9:20 AM - 11 May 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • Taketomo Isazawa Ant Breach Average 2% Objective Ruffian
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. BjarniBjarniBjarni‏ @HerraBRE 11 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @patio11

          Is the disagreement here then whether Japan supplemented the failed policies or not? It seems like that question should have a clear answer.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 11 May 2020
          Replying to @HerraBRE

          State of emergency in epicenters for a month, broadened to national state of emergency, then extended to two months. 1k+ patients moved out of medical system to hotels to conserve beds. No McDonalds serving eat-in. Transit usage down ~80% (in epicenters).

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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