but Japan a stricter state of national emergency is early April... so again, it isn’t like the virus was left to spread uncontrollably. Predictions are dire and then people respond accordingly and thus reality is less dire.
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Replying to @adamcarte @tylercowen
That doesn't fit the timeline of what happened, though. The state of emergency was not declared until April 16. What happened in early April was that schools and universities opened back up.
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Replying to @Pinboard @tylercowen
Sure but the hardest hit areas had already put in place states of emergency weeks earlier
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Replying to @adamcarte @tylercowen
The reasoning here is circular—since cases went down, whatever measures were taken must have worked. The original post explains why those measures appeared inadequate. No real new measures were taken until mid-April, at which point cases were already declining.
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Replying to @Pinboard @tylercowen
Okay - I don’t think one needs to invoke anything beyond people responding accordingly to risk levels and thus lowering spread to explain the lack of dire consequences in some places relative to predictions.
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I have spent enough time discussing this with “THEY SAID IT WOULD BE WORSE” tech people on twitter though. Let the virus spread with no changes in societal behavior, and it would be an unmitigated disaster.
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Media warnings, states of emergency, etc all encourage people to take the threat seriously. It isn’t a surprise then when people respond to these warnings and spread slows.
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Replying to @adamcarte @tylercowen
People responded strongly to the warnings in NYC and could not avert catastrophic spread. I salute your ability to not be surprised, but here you are outdoing the public health experts in Japan, who were expecting a disaster.
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Replying to @Pinboard @tylercowen
Okay comparing NYC and Japan is comparing apples to oranges. There were/are huge differences in testing infrastructure, initial contact tracing, public awareness, social behavior, etc. You yourself have pointed out some of these things in the past.
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Replying to @adamcarte @tylercowen
Let's talk about Tokyo, since that's more directly comparable. Your argument is that behavior there changed because of media reports. I'm pointing out the same was true of NYC when their numbers started sharply rising. People watch and react to the news everywhere
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There was a consensus that case counts were rising rapidly, that the hospital system there would soon be overwhelmed, and the situation was slipping out of control. And then it didn't. That's what is interesting about what happened.
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Replying to @Pinboard @tylercowen
Yes I agree - my guess would be that Tokyo had its shit together drastically more in terms of testing, contact tracing, etc. I would have to look at the numbers, but I also think NYC blew up really fast, likely due to undetected initial spread.
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If Tokyo didn’t make the same mistakes, keeping things from spiraling out of control is easier.
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End of conversation
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