We could also use a retraction from @tylercowen, who published the same claims on April 21.https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/04/the-japanese-coronavirus-story.html …
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Waiting patiently for an update from
@patio11 and the light from his distant star... https://twitter.com/russmonk/status/1254017918339350528?s=21 …pic.twitter.com/KELlRjWrs5
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They're only alarmist in retrospect, though. I think there was good reason to expect something similar to London, NYC. The risk of being all milquetoast about your recommendations is that they lose potency. Better to err on side of overreaction than kill lots of grand/parents.
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I agree, and like I said, I shared this view. I don't fault him for asserting the claim. But it's important too to own up when you were wrong.
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damn he really went all-in toohttps://twitter.com/patio11/status/1241553311024603140 …
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Oh wow, yeah
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Can you identify what specifically you believe was wrong there? Was it the claim that Japan actually had an uncontrolled epidemic? Or that that epidemic would be an acknowledged national scale emergency in April? Or that medical care would be changed as we ran out of beds?
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The claim that "rapid uncontrolled increase in infections, which will cause a breakdown in care (which Japan refers to as an “overshoot”) when the hospital system is overwhelmed, leading to a sharp increase in deaths," and "over 5K severe cases" leading to "breakdown in care".
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