Whatever is happening in Japan, things genuinely seem to have turned a corner. This is not what knowledgeable people in the public health system expected to see happen. It's vital that we figure out why rapidly growing infection numbers didn't culminate in a crisis here in April.https://twitter.com/jt_mag_os/status/1259403143659483136 …
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Japan undertested, never really locked down, and by mid-March there was uncontrolled community spread in Osaka, Kobe and Tokyo at a minimum. School resumed even as the hospital system started to come under real strain. And then things started easing up. No good theories why.
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You can say masks did it, but mask-wearing was already ubiquitous during the time when cases were on the rise in March. Behavior changed a lot, but restaurants and offices never fully closed. It is a huge relief after media warnings of 400K potential deaths, but also a puzzle.
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I rib
@patio11 a lot, but he's a smart guy with his ear to the ground here, and he was anticipating a vastly different outcome, too. I will say personally that it's delightful to be wrong in these circumstances. My doom and gloom was not consistent with what happened.2 replies 0 retweets 21 likesShow this thread -
I want to re-iterate that I'm not being coy with some private theory, but struggling to understand a disease that made way more sense to me in March.
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Replying to @Pinboard
The BCG vaccine theory is getting more and more traction.
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We'll have data soon. But remember that lots of people in France, Iran and the UK got that vaccine too.
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