Japan undertested, never really locked down, and by mid-March there was uncontrolled community spread in Osaka, Kobe and Tokyo at a minimum. School resumed even as the hospital system started to come under real strain. And then things started easing up. No good theories why.
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You can say masks did it, but mask-wearing was already ubiquitous during the time when cases were on the rise in March. Behavior changed a lot, but restaurants and offices never fully closed. It is a huge relief after media warnings of 400K potential deaths, but also a puzzle.
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I rib
@patio11 a lot, but he's a smart guy with his ear to the ground here, and he was anticipating a vastly different outcome, too. I will say personally that it's delightful to be wrong in these circumstances. My doom and gloom was not consistent with what happened.Show this thread -
I want to re-iterate that I'm not being coy with some private theory, but struggling to understand a disease that made way more sense to me in March.
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I've come around to the idea that this isn't hard to manage on a low level with most individuals taking small, reasonable precautions but almost impossible on a high level with the state demanding large, and inevitably incoherent measures.
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I think this will help you. I've been telling various foreigners about Japan's policy, but since they are easy to believe in hoax, no one answered. Will you listen to me?https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1241734715175993345.html …
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Japan attaches great importance to preventing outbreaks. When one infected is found, the staff will look for relatives for observation or inspection. For example, here's an outbreak picture. The method of isolation is different, but it is almost the same as what SK is doing now.pic.twitter.com/HNUYcbHEl1
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Is it possible that Japanese people just talk less? Cause I suspect that talking is a major virus mobilizer.
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