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Pinboard

@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 9 May 2020

      Pinboard Retweeted

      Epidemiologists in Japan operate on a theory that, while everyone is susceptible to infection, only a very small minority of people spread the disease, but do so with incredible efficiency. Cases like this one certainly make the theory seem less unlikely. https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1259178497320185856 …

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      6 replies 33 retweets 124 likes
    2. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 9 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard

      This seems like a theory that is powerful when case numbers are small, but becomes increasingly less helpful once case numbers reach a critical mass and “rare” superspreader events become commonplace.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 9 May 2020
      Replying to @matthew_d_green

      Yeah, I've been trying to understand that part myself. Like if one person in a hundred is a spreader, but there are thousands of cases, then you just divide the cases by that number and... get pretty much the same result, just offset by a few weeks earlier, right?

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 9 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @matthew_d_green

      But a thing it does account for is how the disease can be *so* infectious in some contexts, but then also not burn through cities like Tokyo despite being around for months

      2:38 PM - 9 May 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 6 Likes
      • 🐊 Chloride Cull 🏳️‍🌈 John Lee Aaron 🥑🚈🚰🏀 Joseph Torres Markus Kolic 🚲🚎🥑 R. Travis Atkins
      1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
        1. New conversation
        2.  📻 🌊‏ @raytraced 9 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @matthew_d_green

          if they find the super spreader, they may discover what makes them so effective at spreading. it may be due to obvious physical symptoms, or something else. if the ‘how’ of super spreading is understood, it could answer a lot of your other questions.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Otomics‏ @otomics 10 May 2020
          Replying to @raytraced @Pinboard @matthew_d_green

          Maybe you should consider it isn't the specific type of people but the specific environment that make the super spreader (events). (e.g. places that are crowded, poorly ventilated, people talk/shout a lot)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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