If you write an article about how Sweden or Belarus or Florida is going to be carpeted with bodies because they didn't follow social distancing rules, and then it doesn't happen, please have the courtesy to write a follow-up about how it's curious that those forecasts were wrong
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I seem to recall a lot of this "florida morons" stuff that has gone completely unexamined since. But calamities that don't happen in a pandemic are an interesting clue. It's not just about dunking on bad predictions; understanding this could save lives!pic.twitter.com/9eom4UhkgB
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My specific request to journalists is: 1) Review dire forecasts you made in the past weeks 2) Be honest about things that surprise you 3) Don't ignore negative evidence 4) Do this iteratively
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Replying to @Pinboard
You are still acting like those places are not distancing at all. Things would be dire if nobody was distancing but that isn’t what’s happening!
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Replying to @adamcarte
I understand this! There is in fact a strong argument to be made that official policy doesn't matter much, as people will adopt distancing measures as a function of their own fear of getting sick.
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Replying to @Pinboard
Seems like that confines responsible people and allows irresponsible people to do whatever they want, so maybe not optimal.
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Replying to @adamcarte @Pinboard
For Sweden at least they do have a lot of official social distancing policy going on, it is just not in the form of strict bans. High-trust society.
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Plus everywhere people are taking their own measures because they are rational beings who read the news. I suspect the impact of official policies is very much overstated.
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Replying to @Pinboard @adamcarte
In Finland at least a recurring theme being a certain part of the commentariat and to some extent media painting dire pictures of how rolling back this or that restriction will lead to disaster. Has not yet materialized, but remains to be seen.
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