When discussing the uneven geographical impact of coronavirus, remember that the more elaborate an explanation you give, the weaker it is. I see this fallacy a lot. The complexity makes it sound more true to the storytelling ear, but it is a symptom of ignorance, not knowledge.
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Once you start talking about stochastic processes, random seeding, and so on, you might as well wrap it up. For some reason "I don't know" is the hardest thing to say in relation to the obvious failure of this disease to hit equally hard everywhere it spreads.
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Think about it like curve-fitting. The more parameters you add, the more closely you can fit any set of data points. Does that mean you understand it better? The namesake explanation for malaria was much more subtle and nuanced than the humble truth.
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In the history of human infectious diseases, no one ever lost a lot of money betting on simple etiology.
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I have no earthly idea. But it's going to be obvious in hindsight!
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