People are writing stories about why Brazil is facing a rapid rise in coronavirus cases, but I want to read the stories about why Egypt, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan are not. And they really aren't, and it is beyond time for people to get curious about why not.
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In the 1918 flu pandemic, mortality rates were something like 10x higher in the poorest countries. The universal belief in February 2020 was that the developing world would be hit hardest by this pandemic. What did we get wrong, and how can we capitalize on it?
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There is a tension between saying we must lock down the US until a vaccine is ready, and the empirical fact that most of the world is not having a great deal of trouble keeping this epidemic contained. The circular explanation that they all have better policy doesn't hold up.
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You can claim that everybody is lying and undercounting, and the whole world looks like Lombardy and London, but if that's true, where are the bodies? This should be the #1 mystery about coronavirus we attempt to solve, because it might offer a quicker way out of the crisis.
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On a domestic U.S. note, this raises an urgent question—what if we really can lift restrictions across most of the country safely? Republicans who say this are being vilified, but honesty compels us to say they have strong evidence on their side. People need to get more curious
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Replying to @Pinboard
American deaths look flat because CA+WA are over, NYC is falling, but others are rising, especially those still working. It's many overlapping networks.
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This is true in any large country. But it just raises more questions than it answers. There was community spread for a while in California and Florida, and these didn't turn into the same disaster as New York. Why not?
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