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Pinboard

@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 8 May 2020

      People are writing stories about why Brazil is facing a rapid rise in coronavirus cases, but I want to read the stories about why Egypt, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan are not. And they really aren't, and it is beyond time for people to get curious about why not.

      48 replies 82 retweets 348 likes
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    2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 8 May 2020

      In the 1918 flu pandemic, mortality rates were something like 10x higher in the poorest countries. The universal belief in February 2020 was that the developing world would be hit hardest by this pandemic. What did we get wrong, and how can we capitalize on it?

      4 replies 10 retweets 63 likes
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    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 8 May 2020

      There is a tension between saying we must lock down the US until a vaccine is ready, and the empirical fact that most of the world is not having a great deal of trouble keeping this epidemic contained. The circular explanation that they all have better policy doesn't hold up.

      8 replies 10 retweets 69 likes
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    4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 8 May 2020

      You can claim that everybody is lying and undercounting, and the whole world looks like Lombardy and London, but if that's true, where are the bodies? This should be the #1 mystery about coronavirus we attempt to solve, because it might offer a quicker way out of the crisis.

      7 replies 14 retweets 77 likes
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    5. Mark Linsey‏ @mlinsey 8 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard

      One guess for part of the delta but not all of it: Pop over 65 / Under 25 Bangladesh 6.42% / 46% Nigeria 3.26% / 62% Indonesia 7% / 42% Egypt 4.2% / 52% Pakistan 3.3% / 62% USA 16% / 31% Italy 21.6 / 23.2

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 8 May 2020
      Replying to @mlinsey

      But then you have to explain Japan. Most people do this by starting to add caveats to their explanation.

      7:34 PM - 8 May 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • 𝕵𝐚𝐲𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐯𝐚 Mark Linsey
      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. sys‏ @ksusys 8 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @mlinsey

          there's probably not one big thing that explains every country. there seem to be a lot of different things that reduce transmission rate and different countries can have different routes to the same transmission rate.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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