People are writing stories about why Brazil is facing a rapid rise in coronavirus cases, but I want to read the stories about why Egypt, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan are not. And they really aren't, and it is beyond time for people to get curious about why not.
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In the 1918 flu pandemic, mortality rates were something like 10x higher in the poorest countries. The universal belief in February 2020 was that the developing world would be hit hardest by this pandemic. What did we get wrong, and how can we capitalize on it?
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There is a tension between saying we must lock down the US until a vaccine is ready, and the empirical fact that most of the world is not having a great deal of trouble keeping this epidemic contained. The circular explanation that they all have better policy doesn't hold up.
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Replying to @Pinboard @SolientArt
third world here - i feel like much of the world is simply not testing enough for us to have even remotely trustworthy numbers
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i'd even go so far as to say that in some countries ,such as here in the Philippines, the government is intentionally not testing as much as they should precisely to keep the numbers down
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Replying to @kipplekipp @SolientArt
The same was true for Japan. The numbers are unreliable, but there's also not mass death, and it's been long enough that we need to seriously question why not.
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Replying to @Pinboard @SolientArt
well, here it might be because the lockdown is really goddamn strict, people aren't violating it the way i've heard things are in the states, and honestly the longer this goes on the more people here are at risk of starvation from no-work-no-pay policies than the actual virus
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I can think of reasons for any one individual country, but it's the global pattern that doesn't make sense. People are being very compliant in the US, too, but the disease just seems to behave differently in some regions.
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