People are writing stories about why Brazil is facing a rapid rise in coronavirus cases, but I want to read the stories about why Egypt, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan are not. And they really aren't, and it is beyond time for people to get curious about why not.
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There is a tension between saying we must lock down the US until a vaccine is ready, and the empirical fact that most of the world is not having a great deal of trouble keeping this epidemic contained. The circular explanation that they all have better policy doesn't hold up.
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You can claim that everybody is lying and undercounting, and the whole world looks like Lombardy and London, but if that's true, where are the bodies? This should be the #1 mystery about coronavirus we attempt to solve, because it might offer a quicker way out of the crisis.
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On a domestic U.S. note, this raises an urgent question—what if we really can lift restrictions across most of the country safely? Republicans who say this are being vilified, but honesty compels us to say they have strong evidence on their side. People need to get more curious
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Again, it's really hurting us to have most of the American media be highly neurotic residents of the cities hit hardest by this disease
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Standard responses I get to this line of inquiry are "just you wait, it will get worse", "we're not seeing the real data", and "show me the peer-reviewed studies that back this up". But we can't all go McClellan on this topic, and refuse to act on partial information in a crisis
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The fact that Bangladesh, home of the natural disaster, can reopen factories is the news story.
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You have to also explain the dynamic in Japan, where the population is absolutely ancient
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How much of that difference in 1918 was driven by the very high number of deaths in India, where the British caused famine and ignored the pandemic?
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Here's a paper that has the answer! https://idlewords.com/geography_1918.pdf …
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