Fine. You're happy with your explanation. The question had *nothing* to do with Korea HK Taiwan China NZ Macau (places we understand very well) and Vietnam and Australia (some). You aren't even getting *near* the question I'm asking except with assuming the answer. Good luck!
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Replying to @zeynep @Comparativist
"It may have been stochastic" has become everyone's favorite way of saying, "We have no idea."
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Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @Comparativist
It's amazing, really. Mysteries around. But the amount of assuming the answer that's going on is pretty striking. Will make a fascinating book one day.
We had exactly this for previous pandemics; they're tough puzzles but people stubbornly deny the puzzle while it's happening.0 replies 1 retweet 4 likes -
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The point isn't that it's "confidence imports don't matter"; it's that your evidence imports have 'perfect fit' is that places without big explosions must not have had many imports. But how do you know there weren't 1000s of imports that just didn't go off because of [factor x]?
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The confusing part is the negatives though. I agree that bad outbreak → many 2nd wave imports. But who says no outbreak → few 2nd wave imports? Where ISN'T travel, genetic data murky? Seems premature to say places not hit had definitionally low imports. How would you disprove?
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Again, it’s just false to say all places not hit hard had low imports - Thailand had lots of Chinese visitors in January. And Cambodia became a place ppl went to because they couldn’t go anywhere else.
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Japan also has massive and growing tourism from China. China, Taiwan and Hong Kong together account for over half of overseas visits to Japan. Trey's claim is bizarre.https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/inbound/ …
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