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Pinboard

@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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Joined July 2009

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    Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 May 2020

    This morning @zeynep asked why Japan and India did not look like Lombardy or NYC. I made a list of the explanations people offered, juxtaposed against a list of reasons experts gave in 1910 to explain the prevalence of scurvy on prolonged polar voyages https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1258548813888811008 …pic.twitter.com/o4dyBQLvQO

    11:43 PM - 7 May 2020
    • 25 Retweets
    • 73 Likes
    • Micheál Reilly Bethan Hutton Scooter Hotz David Anderson Lynn Joe Moschella Chris Croy sedat kapanoğlu John D Pell
    7 replies 25 retweets 73 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 May 2020

        For those who forgot their schooling, scurvy is a vitamin deficiency disease due to lack of ascorbic acid in the diet. It is fully curable with a small quantity of almost any fresh food. The disease manifests in extraordinarily complex ways that betray its simple etiology.

        4 replies 2 retweets 21 likes
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      3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 May 2020

        My point is twofold. First, don't neglect your vitamin C! Second, if your explanation for something is a complex quilt of reasons, and those explanations don't give you predictive power, then you don't understand what you're explaining. Recognize the early symptoms of ignorance.

        3 replies 11 retweets 63 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 May 2020

        I wrote a long essay on how the cure for scurvy was lost and found without anyone noticing, which I will promote again because it bears directly on the topic of fooling ourselves about what we know, and having high confidence in inadequate explanations https://idlewords.com/2010/03/scott_and_scurvy.htm …

        2 replies 24 retweets 69 likes
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      5. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 8 May 2020

        I understand that the Solar System is a complex place, a chaotic dynamical system that can't be reduced to simplistic laws just to satisfy a human desire for order. The epicycles in the model reflect the complexity inherent in Nature. Any attempt to simplify is anthropic fallacy.pic.twitter.com/qa4ceF4P3u

        5 replies 4 retweets 23 likes
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      6. End of conversation
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      1. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 7 May 2020
        Replying to @Pinboard @zeynep

        The comparison is false. Scurvy was a low-hanging fruit, a stroke of luck where everything can be explained by one factor. The vast majority of diseases are not like that.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 7 May 2020
        Replying to @Pinboard @zeynep

        Starving Engineer Retweeted David Simons

        https://mobile.twitter.com/David_Simons_UK/status/1258543096461004801 …

        Starving Engineer added,

        David Simons @David_Simons_UK
        Replying to @LucyStats
        Perfect timing for you to be tweeting about this. Can we go for some PeDAGogy? http://dagitty.net/mh2exMd  I have tried to recreate the risk factor graph for their model looking at smoking in particula as exposure. I think this is suggesting there may be an issue of overadjusting. pic.twitter.com/saCuTdxyPg
        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 8 May 2020
        Replying to @Pinboard @zeynep

        Starving Engineer Retweeted Dr Ellie Murray

        Look here for an recent example of correlation/causation being hard *anyway*:https://mobile.twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1258607277357006849 …

        Starving Engineer added,

        Dr Ellie MurrayVerified account @EpiEllie
        There’s a new paper circulating today about “risk factors” for COVID19 which is getting misinterpreted in a pretty common way: applying conclusions about causation to results obtained via methods designed only for finding correlations. It’s time for a #tweetorial! pic.twitter.com/8rymWtGW9l
        Show this thread
        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 May 2020
        Replying to @edw_tweet @Pinboard

        No that’s about a non-causal paper.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies

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