People in New York City are getting coronavirus just sittng and self-isolating at home. 66% of hospital admissions fit that profile. Meanwhile, Japan seems to be turning the corner with very little intervention. Nothing about this makes sense to me.https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html …
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There's coronavirus epidemic lite and coronavirus x-treme, no convincing explanation for the difference, and a thousand theories, none of which persuasively fit all the data until you start mixing and matching them together into a complex quilt of rationalization
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Nothing about my degree from the Twitter Institute of Public Health prepared me for this
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The assumption has been that New York or Lombardy is what inevitably happens to you if you don't take the strictest measures. But what if in most places, Tokyo is what happens to you? It will be really encouraging if we can figure out this baffling difference and mobilize it.
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Took a break from people Japansplaining to me in the comments about how the country is on strictest lockdown to pick up some fresh bread at the corner bakery.
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Replying to @Pinboard
Many places with big outbreaks have involved shared cafeterias/catering. (Prisons, meat packing plants, nursing homes, funerals and weddings, a Catholic girl’s school in New Zealand.) What if asymptomatic people can transmit it through food, and takeout is a contagion factor?
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Oh, and cruise ships. When I looked at “super spreader” events, I thought, “gee, some of those places involve everyone eating from one dining facility.” Then I started researching and they ALL did. It could be a coincidence or it could be the missing link.
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Replying to @rednikki
The trouble is there's a baker's dozen of similar missing links by now, all plausible. One difficulty with the shared food theory is that it would not explain the much lower impact in Japan and Thailand where takeout is also popular.
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Replying to @Pinboard
Sure it does. You don’t have an asymptomatic person preparing food yet. It also explains why things seem normal and suddenly explode – someone who preps food catches COVID-19.
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I'm glad you found an answer that satisfies you.
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Replying to @Pinboard
I’m not saying it satisfies me. You say there’s a baker’s dozen similar missing links and I’d love to hear them. We can test this one: have an asymptomatic COVID carrier prep food for uninfected volunteers, and see what happens.
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We may get an unexpected test, because Tyson, which has many workers with coronavirus, is still exporting meat to Japan.
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