Here's an article about another weird discrepancy, the very low comparative rates of coronavirus in Eastern Europe and the Balkans. The article attributes it to early lockdown and more compliance by historically obedient countries like [of course] Greecehttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/05/why-has-eastern-europe-suffered-less-from-coronavirus-than-the-west …
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Early imposition of lockdown explains the success of anti-coronavirus measures in Eastern Europe, while in Japan, where people all still go to work, it's due to masks and [gong sounds] cultural factors, and in Africa of course it is the climate and younger population. Simple.
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You keep repeating this and it's self-evidently not true. You are better than this. Lots of experts are trying to figure out the variability.
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I am addressing journalists, who are mostly writing just-so stories, as in the top-level article
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What are you trying to point out by repeating this? I'm convincing myself that mask wearing plays a larger role than anticipated. Article glosses over that but I think major role in Eastern Europe.
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I'm trying to persuade people that we are not understanding something important about this disease, and should pay attention to that
End of conversation
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Tiny differences in R0 turn into enormous variation in epidemic size as time goes on. The range of outcomes is log normal but where the dispersion parameter increases linearly with time. This may just be what random sampling from a fat tail distribution looks like.
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The most obvious explanation to me would be that there are two strains, asian and european -- the eastern countries and west coast of north america seeded with the asian virus are doing better -- virus went to europe, mutated to be more contagious, then to the east coast
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Offhand: Different strains in different geographies, Masks make a larger impact than originally suspected, Akin to SARs certain genotypes afford effective immunity whilst enabling symptom-free spreading.
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As an article it doesn’t really make sense. I also see we still don’t talk about disparity within countries. The UK when you break it down by region: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 … no real explanation other than it looks like urban centres. Although the North West looks anomalous then.
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