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Pinboard

@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020

      Here's an article about another weird discrepancy, the very low comparative rates of coronavirus in Eastern Europe and the Balkans. The article attributes it to early lockdown and more compliance by historically obedient countries like [of course] Greecehttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/05/why-has-eastern-europe-suffered-less-from-coronavirus-than-the-west …

      4 replies 3 retweets 18 likes
      Show this thread
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020

      No one is doing a convincing job explaining severe geographical discrepancies in the impact of COVID-19, but everyone is doing a great job in convincing themselves they understand it

      6:01 PM - 5 May 2020
      • 8 Retweets
      • 41 Likes
      • Georgy Eroshkin john miller Jenny Lobasz Christian Langreiter Andy Chow *#GotVaxxed*💉 Dad Prez Allways 🚲🚎🥑 Konrad Hinsen
      7 replies 8 retweets 41 likes
        1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020

          Early imposition of lockdown explains the success of anti-coronavirus measures in Eastern Europe, while in Japan, where people all still go to work, it's due to masks and [gong sounds] cultural factors, and in Africa of course it is the climate and younger population. Simple.

          3 replies 7 retweets 27 likes
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        2. John Gordon‏ @jgordonshare 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          You keep repeating this and it's self-evidently not true. You are better than this. Lots of experts are trying to figure out the variability.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020
          Replying to @jgordonshare

          I am addressing journalists, who are mostly writing just-so stories, as in the top-level article

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
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        2. Bartek Ciszkowski‏ @bartekci 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          What are you trying to point out by repeating this? I'm convincing myself that mask wearing plays a larger role than anticipated. Article glosses over that but I think major role in Eastern Europe.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020
          Replying to @bartekci

          I'm trying to persuade people that we are not understanding something important about this disease, and should pay attention to that

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Ryan Moulton  💉 💉 🥳‏ @moultano 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          Tiny differences in R0 turn into enormous variation in epidemic size as time goes on. The range of outcomes is log normal but where the dispersion parameter increases linearly with time. This may just be what random sampling from a fat tail distribution looks like.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Daniel Roberts‏ @nomadicdigital 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          The most obvious explanation to me would be that there are two strains, asian and european -- the eastern countries and west coast of north america seeded with the asian virus are doing better -- virus went to europe, mutated to be more contagious, then to the east coast

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Keith Williams‏ @bonsai 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          Offhand: Different strains in different geographies, Masks make a larger impact than originally suspected, Akin to SARs certain genotypes afford effective immunity whilst enabling symptom-free spreading.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Francis Cook‏ @dianshuo 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          As an article it doesn’t really make sense. I also see we still don’t talk about disparity within countries. The UK when you break it down by region: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 … no real explanation other than it looks like urban centres. Although the North West looks anomalous then.

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