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Pinboard

@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020

      This is a graph of projected vs. actual infections in Tokyo prefecture from the month of April, from Yokohama City University. What the hell is going on? Why didn't Tokyo end up like New York or Northern Italy? Source: https://www.fttsus.jp/covinfo/pref-simulation/?fbclid=IwAR0ruNDG7Kt_sG3-SlQl3NtgYaF60RLjcRQARjAV2TsCH8m8sxauHHbMhis#29 …pic.twitter.com/ThhO6Je6So

      28 replies 24 retweets 79 likes
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    2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020

      The mystery is not that there are no cases, but that there was no major blowup in cases, which Japanese epidemiologists were universally anticipating. A state of emergency was declared in Japan on April 16 in large part on the strength of these forecasts.

      4 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
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    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020

      How many dogs have to not bark before people recognize there is something that needs explaining?

      6 replies 4 retweets 23 likes
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    4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020

      If you have a "cultural" explanation for Japan, then explain how it applies to India or Nigeria or Vietnam

      10 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
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      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020

      For people pointing out that Japan is undertesting, that is true, but it is not a sufficient explanation for why we haven't seen mass casualties among medical staff or a breakdown of the hospital system in Tokyo. Both were anticipated and would be impossible to hide

      8:05 AM - 5 May 2020
      • 2 Retweets
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      • JackTLadd sys Maya Shay Weird Monkey Daniel Osborne Screaming Guitar Solo Average 2% Objective Ruffian Ben Jarvis Ant Breach
      8 replies 2 retweets 21 likes
        1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020

          Read the variety of one-word responses to my original tweet, each delivered with 100% certainty, to see how overdetermined the failure of coronavirus was in Japan. It's amazing the poor virus even got a toehold, with all the factors working against it

          2 replies 0 retweets 19 likes
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        1. Thom Beckett‏ @thombeckett 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          Since there seems to be low mortality in smokers might the high levels of smoking make a difference?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. usually elsewhere‏ @Renois 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          Well I think it’s possible a different strain exists there as opposed to say an NYC, but really way too soon to know anything with anything resembling confidence.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Matt Majeune-Fagan‏ @MattMajeune 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          The two most plausible scenarios seem to be a generally healthier population and that face covers are more effective to prevent spreading than people thought

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Thom Beckett‏ @thombeckett 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          Although I suspect early mask-wearing is the most likely explanation.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Screaming Guitar Solo‏ @TheGlennHubler 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          My wife works in the field. One thing I have gathered is, there is still a LOT to learn. Lots of unusual patterns of where infections do and don't occur en masse

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        1. Cyrs the unsinkable sea serpent‏ @errantambition 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          I have zero data, but if I were to pick to options 1. Japan is highly isolationist nation. Maybe they got lucky and a less dangerous strain is going around there 2. I have a half remembered fact that it is much more common for folk to die at home, so may not be attributed 2 covid

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