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Pinboard

@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020

      This is a graph of projected vs. actual infections in Tokyo prefecture from the month of April, from Yokohama City University. What the hell is going on? Why didn't Tokyo end up like New York or Northern Italy? Source: https://www.fttsus.jp/covinfo/pref-simulation/?fbclid=IwAR0ruNDG7Kt_sG3-SlQl3NtgYaF60RLjcRQARjAV2TsCH8m8sxauHHbMhis#29 …pic.twitter.com/ThhO6Je6So

      28 replies 24 retweets 79 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020

      The mystery is not that there are no cases, but that there was no major blowup in cases, which Japanese epidemiologists were universally anticipating. A state of emergency was declared in Japan on April 16 in large part on the strength of these forecasts.

      4 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
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    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020

      How many dogs have to not bark before people recognize there is something that needs explaining?

      6 replies 3 retweets 22 likes
      Show this thread
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020

      If you have a "cultural" explanation for Japan, then explain how it applies to India or Nigeria or Vietnam

      7:56 AM - 5 May 2020
      • 18 Likes
      • Keith Taufiq Muhammadi Roger Filmyer Andreas Kyng bruckbruckbruck NEPman Grindset 🚰 Count of Negroni jose nestor marquez Daniel Osborne
      9 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020

          For people pointing out that Japan is undertesting, that is true, but it is not a sufficient explanation for why we haven't seen mass casualties among medical staff or a breakdown of the hospital system in Tokyo. Both were anticipated and would be impossible to hide

          8 replies 2 retweets 21 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020

          Read the variety of one-word responses to my original tweet, each delivered with 100% certainty, to see how overdetermined the failure of coronavirus was in Japan. It's amazing the poor virus even got a toehold, with all the factors working against it

          2 replies 0 retweets 19 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. hack 🕴️2021‏ @hacklaw 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          Warmer climates attenuate viral infection.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 May 2020
          Replying to @hacklaw

          Japan is not a warmer climate in April. At least check the most basic facts before you post stuff like this.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. sbeam‏ @sbeam 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          sbeam Retweeted Constance Crozier

          Could be that modeling S-curves based on a few initial data points is very hard and is not really worth calling a "projection". Check this thread out:https://twitter.com/clcrozier/status/1251148890595708938 …

          sbeam added,

          0:43
          Constance Crozier @clcrozier
          I spent a humiliating amount of time learning how to make animated graphs, just to illustrate a fairly obvious point. “Forecasting s-curves is hard” My views on why carefully following daily figures is unlikely to provide insight. https://constancecrozier.com/2020/04/16/forecasting-s-curves-is-hard/ … pic.twitter.com/BqQrxlhCmi
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. Brian Yurick‏ @HTTCME 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          Viral mutation? Maybe they all got a less potent strain?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. kev mchugh‏ @krmchugh 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          I saw a (non-cultural) explanation that, because of how common smoking is, Japanese bars, restaurants, have very strong HVAC and filtration systems, limiting spread. This also explains why Vegas hasn't been hit hard. Don't know enough to think of a counter example.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Ant Breach‏ @AntBreach 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          How has Japan handled nosocomial spread? What are their policies on care homes and hospitals?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. rst‏ @rsthau 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          India may not be barking yet, but it's starting to yip.https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52544054 …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Pozorvlak‏ @pozorvlak 5 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          I don't follow your point about Vietnam - didn't Vietnam lock down hard and early, test intensively, give out free masks, etc? Very different to the Japanese situation.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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