If young people aren't just less *vulnerable* to coronavirus but less likely to catch it at all, one of the big factors in the striking underperformance of the virus in the global South is not going to be climate, as we once thought, but relatively youthful populations.
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Replying to @BeijingPalmer
But then you get Ecuador and Japan as counterexamples. It's hard not to get to an analysis of why the pandemic is so selective without a Rube Goldberg mechanism with many moving parts
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Replying to @Pinboard
including 'dumb luck' in things like early big spreaders
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Replying to @BeijingPalmer
A multivariate explanation with no predictive power is a classic sign of not understanding something
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Replying to @Pinboard
'Dumb luck' is the actual explanation behind a lot of things that we want to attribute causality too, though.
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Replying to @BeijingPalmer
Dumb luck might in fact the explanation for everything that exists! But in this case you see almost a superposition of two things—a disease that clearly gets around quite easily, and then severe outbreaks that are concentrated in some geographical regions, and avoid others.
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Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer
The theory that several countries in Africa and Southeast Asia could succeed in controlling this pandemic with combination of quick response and random chance is reasonable. The fact that all of them did is not.
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The fact that there's been uncontained community spread in Japan for over two months now, but it all kind of works itself out, also places too many demands on luck.
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