Uncertainties in structurally dissimilar models of a poorly-understood exponential process are not like the uncertainties in polling everyone is used to seeing on this political analysis website, and presenting the data in this way guarantees misunderstanding
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Looking forward to next week, when
@Nate_Cohn introduces a gently quivering javascript needle showing the current R_e value for New York City.1 reply 1 retweet 58 likesShow this thread -
Here's
@NateSilver538 providing the crucial state-by-state information we need to plan for the next month. There will be somewhere from zero to many thousands of coronavirus deaths in Montana and Nebraska. In their defense, I bet this forecast is not wrong!pic.twitter.com/KItuYF2EqK
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Coronavirus has many weird symptoms. Online it mostly manifests as an irreversible brain wasting disease, with the New York Times an early and dramatic superspreading event
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If you read the fine print on
@FiveThirtyEight, most coronavirus model have the same caveat: they assume no change in social distancing or other behavior. But we know this behavior changes with time and with the severity of the epidemic. These models are not a forecast at allpic.twitter.com/pyxNEGfbt3
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Finally, look at the confidence intervals on some of the specific models, looking a *month* into the future. These certainties are a mathematical artifact of the model. FiveThirtyEight is publishing this innumerate clickbait to replace lost political page views.pic.twitter.com/xhNE41pQgV
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Deleted this devastating dunk because people correctly pointed out that FiveThirtyEight belongs to ABC news, not the NYT. I was so sure in my mind of this ownership I didn't even bother to double-check. I apologize for the stupid error. I'm right about everything else, though!pic.twitter.com/iAKkrp3dqr
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Today we have validation of how one of the front page
@FiveThirtyEight models performs compared to reality. So will it stay up on the site? https://towardsdatascience.com/transparency-reproducibility-and-validity-of-covid-19-projection-models-78592e029f28 …pic.twitter.com/iCdwEcsnkn
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Replying to @Pinboard @FiveThirtyEight
I love how you keep hammering at this as if Nate Silver himself created the IMHE model. It's extremely normal for a news organization to report on and present on a scientific model. I would be worried if they were doing this! They even go out of there way to show other models.
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If you think the IHME model is so unscientific that is should be totally removed from the public discourse please take it up with the University of Washington
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Qualified people have already done that.
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Replying to @Pinboard @FiveThirtyEight
Hmm, it would be great if someone did an article comparing the different models and their methodological so that we could see how the IHME model deviates from the consensus and view alternative models. Wait a minute...
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Yes, someone more competent than Nate-"numbers-per-capita"-Silver. Maybe even someone who wrote it weeks ago? Wait a minute...https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/ …
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End of conversation
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