We're in a media context where these models (which are indispensable, in a way @zeynep has written about https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ …) have already been misinterpreted as oracles of truth. Now @FiveThirtyEight is systematizing this misuse of models in easy visual form for policymakers
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It's fine to write about this stuff, but it requires context, not a front-page visualization that readers can turn to to see how the president is polling today, and how many of us are going to die.
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Uncertainties in structurally dissimilar models of a poorly-understood exponential process are not like the uncertainties in polling everyone is used to seeing on this political analysis website, and presenting the data in this way guarantees misunderstanding
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Looking forward to next week, when
@Nate_Cohn introduces a gently quivering javascript needle showing the current R_e value for New York City.1 reply 1 retweet 58 likesShow this thread -
Here's
@NateSilver538 providing the crucial state-by-state information we need to plan for the next month. There will be somewhere from zero to many thousands of coronavirus deaths in Montana and Nebraska. In their defense, I bet this forecast is not wrong!pic.twitter.com/KItuYF2EqK
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Coronavirus has many weird symptoms. Online it mostly manifests as an irreversible brain wasting disease, with the New York Times an early and dramatic superspreading event
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If you read the fine print on
@FiveThirtyEight, most coronavirus model have the same caveat: they assume no change in social distancing or other behavior. But we know this behavior changes with time and with the severity of the epidemic. These models are not a forecast at allpic.twitter.com/pyxNEGfbt3
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Finally, look at the confidence intervals on some of the specific models, looking a *month* into the future. These certainties are a mathematical artifact of the model. FiveThirtyEight is publishing this innumerate clickbait to replace lost political page views.pic.twitter.com/xhNE41pQgV
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