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Pinboard

@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 2 May 2020

      The FiveThirtyEight transition from sports betting and horse race journalism to "4 Winners and 3 Losers from the Global Pandemic" is now complete, with this tracker of specialized technical models. I'm old enough to remember when @NateSilver538 praised himself for not doing thispic.twitter.com/L26gRlDyMX

      7 replies 18 retweets 126 likes
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    2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 2 May 2020

      Here's the problem: none of the intuitions from reading political polls carry over to a graph like this. Uncertainties in exponential models are not like those in polling. The model uncertainty is enormous. And model averages are not polling averages; you can't aggregate them

      1 reply 8 retweets 59 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 2 May 2020

      We're in a media context where these models (which are indispensable, in a way @zeynep has written about https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ …) have already been misinterpreted as oracles of truth. Now @FiveThirtyEight is systematizing this misuse of models in easy visual form for policymakers

      1 reply 11 retweets 36 likes
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    4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 2 May 2020

      It's fine to write about this stuff, but it requires context, not a front-page visualization that readers can turn to to see how the president is polling today, and how many of us are going to die.

      1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 2 May 2020

      Uncertainties in structurally dissimilar models of a poorly-understood exponential process are not like the uncertainties in polling everyone is used to seeing on this political analysis website, and presenting the data in this way guarantees misunderstanding

      2 replies 3 retweets 31 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 2 May 2020

      Looking forward to next week, when @Nate_Cohn introduces a gently quivering javascript needle showing the current R_e value for New York City.

      1 reply 1 retweet 58 likes
      Show this thread
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 3 May 2020

      Here's @NateSilver538 providing the crucial state-by-state information we need to plan for the next month. There will be somewhere from zero to many thousands of coronavirus deaths in Montana and Nebraska. In their defense, I bet this forecast is not wrong!pic.twitter.com/KItuYF2EqK

      9:12 PM - 3 May 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 22 Likes
      • Knut Mora Eli Courtwright ரமணன் சிவரஞ்சன் ◼◼◼[̕D̴A̡T͘͟͡Ą͠ ͘E͢͠X̀͜͝P̶̨͠UN̡͜͝G͠E͏͝D]̛̀͘◼◼◼ Nate Maynard philippe Andreas Kyng (((AWinterman))) Danny Page
      3 replies 2 retweets 22 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 3 May 2020

          Coronavirus has many weird symptoms. Online it mostly manifests as an irreversible brain wasting disease, with the New York Times an early and dramatic superspreading event

          1 reply 3 retweets 34 likes
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        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 3 May 2020

          If you read the fine print on @FiveThirtyEight, most coronavirus model have the same caveat: they assume no change in social distancing or other behavior. But we know this behavior changes with time and with the severity of the epidemic. These models are not a forecast at allpic.twitter.com/pyxNEGfbt3

          2 replies 5 retweets 14 likes
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        4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 3 May 2020

          Finally, look at the confidence intervals on some of the specific models, looking a *month* into the future. These certainties are a mathematical artifact of the model. FiveThirtyEight is publishing this innumerate clickbait to replace lost political page views.pic.twitter.com/xhNE41pQgV

          3 replies 2 retweets 15 likes
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        5. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 3 May 2020

          Deleted this devastating dunk because people correctly pointed out that FiveThirtyEight belongs to ABC news, not the NYT. I was so sure in my mind of this ownership I didn't even bother to double-check. I apologize for the stupid error. I'm right about everything else, though!pic.twitter.com/iAKkrp3dqr

          5 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
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        6. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 4 May 2020

          Today we have validation of how one of the front page @FiveThirtyEight models performs compared to reality. So will it stay up on the site? https://towardsdatascience.com/transparency-reproducibility-and-validity-of-covid-19-projection-models-78592e029f28 …pic.twitter.com/iCdwEcsnkn

          1 reply 3 retweets 8 likes
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        7. End of conversation
        1. Bill Hooker‏ @sennoma 3 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @NateSilver538

          I have never understood why being consistently and demonstrably both wrong and useless does not seem to have any impact on a pundit's career.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 3 May 2020
          Replying to @jwz

          This is hell

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. Jeff Atwood‏Verified account @codinghorror 3 May 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @NateSilver538

          those ads are not going to click themselves Maciej

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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