The lesson from scurvy is that it's not enough to just have good facts or make appropriate inferences; if your mental model is wrong, all the data in the world won't help. And there are many more wrong mental models than right ones. But you also live in a brain that hates doubt
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Anyway, just know that if you're not persuaded by the many explanations for why this virus has affected the world so unevenly, you're not the only fool out there in a sea of experts. Come sit by me (but not too close).
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One reason people are reluctant to admit doubt is a kind of purity thinking that takes hold in these situations. Psychologically, we want a sense of control; that if we obey the rules, wash hands, keep our distance, etc, we won't get sick. That is a painful belief to question.
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And let me be clear that I'm not questioning these measures, or being all woo about what makes people sick. I just think there's some additional factor in the mix affecting where it spreads.
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By the way, this facet of the story (the X factor responsible for uneven spread, beyond just randomness) is potentially extremely good news for the world. If we can figure out what inhibits the contagion in some places, or disinhibits it in others, we will have a powerful weapon
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Not accurately reporting numbers?
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The measures countries are adopting aren’t meant to limit a “number”, they’re meant to limit the real impact on hospitalizations and deaths, and for all we know the “less impacted” countries are not inundated.
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Read an interesting and plausible theory about the BCG vaccine — on the schedule in both Japan and India, not routinely administered in the US or Italy.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCG_vaccine …
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More info related to Covid and trials in progress: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/can-century-old-tb-vaccine-steel-immune-system-against-new-coronavirus …
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It's not clear Japan is doing enough tests.https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52466834 …
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